GOP candidates hope to ride wave of voter discontent (Onalaska-Holmen Courier Life)

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For the second election cycle in a row, an unhappy electorate and a hard economy has one political party charged up and eyeing a wholesale shift in the balance of power.

Wisconsin Democrats took control of the state Assembly in 2008, giving them leadership of both houses of the Legislature and the governor's office for the first time in 22 years.
Now the GOP is looking to ride its own wave back into dominance, a two-year swing that would be an historically quick turnaround of power.

Tuesday marked the filing deadline for the 2010 general election, and according to records at the state's Government Accountability Board, more than 140 Republicans filed nomination papers for Assembly and Senate seats.

Part of the candidate flood is due to availability. There are 23 open seats in the House and Senate, many of them in traditionally strong Republican districts. But part of it is due to the public's continued dissatisfaction with government, national and state experts say. And for better or worse, Democrats are in power now and take heat for the budget cuts, layoffs, furloughs and other hardships associated with the economy.

"Republicans across the state are fired up," said Andrew Welhouse, state Republican Party spokesman. "People have seen mismanagement in Washington and Madison and they want to make a change in both places."

Of course, Democrats see the Republicans' boast as little more than misplaced optimism.

State Rep. Mark Pocan, D-Madison, a top political strategist, acknowledged this will be a tough year for incumbents. He said that if a candidate's heart is not in a race, they will lose. But he believes Republicans are counting seats before they have them.

"I hope they believe their rhetoric," Pocan said. "If they do, they're in for a rude awakening in November. I feel like we're going to stay in the majority and add to it."

If the Republicans do pull off a clean sweep of the Legislature and the governor's office, it would mark the first time since World War II that Wisconsin has experienced such a quick change from one party's control to the other.

"It would be astounding in sheer political terms," said Mordecai Lee, UW-Milwaukee professor of governmental affairs. "You'd probably have to go back to the Depression to see something like it."

Currently most state polls show both major Republican candidates for governor, Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker and former U.S. Rep. Mark Neumann, leading the main Democratic candidate, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett.

To assume control of the 33-member Senate, Republicans would have to gain two seats. In the Assembly, with 99 lawmakers, the GOP would need to pick up four seats.

Republicans have targeted at least five key Senate races, including the seats held by Sens. Jim Sullivan, D-Wauwatosa, and Kathleen Vinehout, D-Alma, both seeking re-election for the first time.

Sullivan faces Republican Leah Vukmir. Sullivan won his seat four years ago, defeating controversial Republican Tom Reynolds, but his district is traditionally Republican. Vinehout faces Republican Ed Thompson, brother of popular former Gov. Tommy Thompson. Like Sullivan, she won her seat four years ago in a district that leans toward the GOP.

"We believe that a lot of weak candidates were swept into office in 2006 and 2008," Welhouse said of the Democratic victors. "We don't think they will be strong enough to win this time."

But Vinehout says Republican leaders are recycling the same rhetoric they used when they predicted she would lose four years ago.

"The voters will get their say again this year," she said. "And I am confident they will defy Republican leaders again."

In the Assembly, Republicans have targeted at least six races, including seats held by state Rep. Jeff Wood, I-Chippewa Falls, who is not seeking reelection, and Assembly Speaker Mike Sheridan, D-Janesville, who faced criticism over his relationship with a lobbyist for payday lenders while the Legislature considered regulating the industry. He has said he is no longer dating the woman.

Charles Franklin, UW-Madison political science professor, said the large number of open seats has him expecting a "huge" turnover in the Legislature.

"The open seats will be most of the new members," he said. "And the turnover and remaking of the Legislature is a question mark."

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