Tom Barrett's challenge for governor will be to distance himself from Doyle (Wisconsin State Journal)

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By CLAY BARBOUR

Just off the Beltline near Rimrock Road sits a billboard that underscores the Republicans' strategy - and the Democrats' challenge - in the upcoming gubernatorial election. The sign places Gov. Jim Doyle's face on Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett's body. It reads, "A third Doyle term. Wisconsin Can't Barrett."

Barring political catastrophe, Barrett should leave this weekend's state Democratic convention in Middleton as the party's choice for governor. But increasingly it seems his path to the Capitol leads away from the man who encouraged him to run.

"Doyle is not popular," said Mordecai Lee, UW-Milwaukee professor of governmental affairs. "If you are running to replace an unpopular incumbent, you act like you've never met him."

Doyle's approval rating hit a low of 34 percent in April. In many ways, he simply picked a bad time to be chief executive. He has wrestled with an economy that would have tarnished even the popularity of former GOP Gov. Tommy Thompson.

And while a number of his moves have appealed to many voters - expanding health care coverage to some of the state's neediest citizens or a statewide smoking ban - Doyle's tax increases have been widely unpopular.

Add to this the anti-incumbancy mantra sweeping the country and you have an uphill battle for anyone remotely connected to the administration.

This dynamic has fueled Barrett's Republican opponents. Both Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker and former U.S. Rep. Mark Neumann have worked to tie the two Democrats together.

"Tom Barrett and Jim Doyle have been lockstep in promoting the disastrous agenda that cost the state 160,000 jobs last year," said Jill Bader, Walker spokeswoman. "Barrett is not only running from the Doyle record, but he is continuing to run from his own. I don't think the voters are going to buy it."

Said Neumann: "Spending increases by Doyle is at the heart and soul of the problems of Wisconsin. And I think Barrett is not only more of the same; he will actually be worse."

None of this has been lost on Barrett, who has in the past several months stressed areas where he and Doyle differ.

In February, he became the first major Doyle backer to oppose the Clean Energy Jobs Act, which would have required the state to get 25 percent of its power from renewable sources by 2025. The proposal, which ultimately failed, was considered one or the governor's legacy projects.

Then in May, Barrett voiced "serious concerns" about the governor's early release program, which attempts to save state money by releasing certain inmates early.

The most recent example occurred earlier this week, when Barrett released a detailed plan for cutting $1 billion from the state budget. The plan called for, among other things, axing the secretary of state and state treasurer offices.

When asked about his recent moves, Barrett said he hasn't tried to distance himself from Doyle. And he said he is not bothered by Republican attempts to link the two.

"There are things where I have agreed (with Doyle) and things where I've disagreed," he said.

Both men have endorsed passenger rail between Madison and Milwaukee, for example, and mayoral control of Milwaukee Public Schools.

But the question remains, will Barrett be able to stand on his own, or will attempts to tie him to Doyle be his undoing?

The most recent polls by Rasmussen and St. Norbert College show both Walker and Neumann lead Barrett: Walker by a margin of seven to 14 percentage points; Neumann by two to 16 points. Both polls show significant numbers of undecided voters.

Barrett has also suffered in some ways from not having a Democratic opponent. He has spent the past few months shadow boxing, while Walker and Neumann have been engaged in blood sport. It is unclear how he will fare once he squares off against one, bloodied, Republican candidate.

Insiders on both sides said it will ultimately come down to the type of campaign he runs.

"The Doyle administration's problems will be laid at his doorstep," said Mark Graul, a former GOP campaign manager. "But I don't think people will go into the booth thinking, "I don't like Doyle, so I can't vote for Barrett.'"

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